The Top 12 Fantasy Quarterbacks and where to draft them

February 7, 2010 - Miami, FL. - New Orleans Saints quarterback Drew Brees hoists the Vince Lombardi trophy after the New Orleans Saints came back from a 10-6 halftime deficit to beat the Indianapolis Colts 31-17 in Super Bowl XLIV at Sun Life Stadium in Miami. Brees was named the game's MVP.

There are plenty of quarterbacks in the sea, but there is only one guy ready to lead you to fantasy glory in 2010. Quarterback has the most flux from week to week, a 300 yard 2 TD performance one week can easily turn into 100 yards and 3 picks the next. Unlike running back, where the demand far outstrips the supply, it is reasonable to get two solid starting quarterbacks in the draft. So do you go for the big gun or value? In a standard 12 team league, most teams will take two each, leaving around 8 starters on the waiver wire. Here is my breakdown of the top QBs and where I suspect they will be drafted in the MFL this season.

Note: The Morgantown Football League scoring is one point per 50 yards, and 6 points for a touchdown pass. So if your league gives 4 for a passing TD, you should bump all of these guys down a round or two. A touchdown is always 6 points, and that’s the way we like it.

* 2010 projections from FFtoday.com using the MFL’s scoring system

First Round

14 July 2010 - Los Angeles, California - Drew Brees. 18th Annual ESPY Awards - Press Room held at Nokia Theatre L.A. Live. Photo Credit: Byron Purvis/AdMedia
Drew Brees
2009 – 4388 yards, 34 TD, 11 INT, 2 rushing TD 272 points
2010* – 4583 yards, 33 TD, 13 INT 286 points

Brees is the most exciting quarterback in the league today. I got to come along on the ride last year, as I had both Pierre Thomas and Robert Meachum in my lineup. Brees can score from anywhere at any time and to any player. The Saints have surrounded him with athletes and he is not afraid to use them. He is Bret Favre of lore minus the interceptions. Anyone with a low first round pick has to seriously consider forsaking a first round RB for the excitement having Brees on the roster will provide.

MIAMI GARDENS, FL - JANUARY 31: Aaron Rodgers #12 of the Green Bay Packers looks on during the 2010 AFC-NFC Pro Bowl at Sun Life Stadium on January 31, 2010 in Miami Gardens, Florida. (Photo by Scott Halleran/Getty Images)
Aaron Rodgers
2009 – 4434 yards, 30 TD, 7 INT, 5 rushing TD 314 points
2010* – 4126 yards, 29 TD, 12 INT 283 points

While Brees had the very slight edge in passing numbers, Rodgers was the MFL’s top scoring QB last season, because when the ball is on the one yard line, he’s putting his head down and getting in for a quick 6. He also showed off some excellent control with only 7 picks, and rarely put the ball on the carpet losing just 4 fumbles. With Greg Jennings, Double D, and James Jones all returning, I expect another great year out of Rodgers. The reason I have him slightly behind Brees is a tough schedule, at least according to that guy.

Second Round

Feb. 07, 2010 - Miami, FLORIDA, UNITED STATES - epa02020903 Indianapolis Colts quarterback Peyton Manning warms up on the field at Sun Life Stadium prior to the start of Super Bowl XLIV in Miami, Florida, USA, 07 February 2010. The New Orleans Saints will play the Indianapolis Colts in american football's annual championship game.
Peyton Manning
2009 – 4500 yards, 33 TD, 16 INT 254 points
2010* – 4279 yards, 30 TD, 13 INT 269 points

Captain consistent, grabbing up Manning means you can safely take a backup in round 15, and plan for them to only play during his bye. He gets rid of the ball so quickly he is virtually injury proof, and on top of that last season he never lost a fumble. The one problem with taking Manning is that the Colts could have the AFC South locked up before the fantasy playoffs.

Professional football player Tom Brady took to the field on a lovely St. Patrick s Day in Los Angeles, California on March 17, 2010. A few friends and his k-9 joined in on a game of catch on the UCLA s football field. Tom s Brazilian supermodel wife Gisele B ndchen and his son Benjamin Rein Brady were nowhere to be seen. Fame Pictures, Inc
Tom Brady
2009 – 4398 yards, 28 TD, 13 INT 238 points
2010* – 4278 yard,s 30 TD, 14 INT 269 points

Started slow in his comeback from losing the 2008 season to injury, but put things together nicely for his fantasy owners. You can be assured that Brady will have the ball in the air 35-40 times per game, the question this year is if and when Wes Welker can hit the field. Brady makes a living on those short passes over the middle, Edleman proved to be a Welker clone filling in at the end of the last season, it will be key that he does so again.

Third Round

Jan 17, 2010; San Diego, CA, USA; San Diego Chargers quarterback Phillip Rivers (17) reacts after throwing a touchdown pass in the second quarter of the 2010 AFC Divisional playoff game against the New York Jets at Qualcomm Stadium.
Phillip Rivers
2009 – 4254 yard,s 28 TD, 13 INT 238 points
2010* – 3775 yards, 26 TD, 12 INT 229 points

My hero. Almost single handedly lead my team to the title last season. After starting a woeful 2-4, Rivers stepped it up and led the Three Eyed Fish to wins in 9 of the last 10 games, and took home the MFL Finals MVP. Things are looking rocky for the start of this year, starting with the running game which will become more prominent with the drafting of Ryan Matthews. The elephant in the room is Vincent Jackson, who has decided to go all diva and has threatened to hold out for the first 10 games of the season. If Jackson holds out, it could toss Rivers out of starting fantasy consideration.

July 14, 2010 - Stateline, Nevada, USA - TONY ROMO during a practice round at the 21st annual American Century Championships at the Edgewood Tahoe Golf Course. Offering a total purse of 600,000 dollars, the made-for-tv ACC, owned and broadcast by NBC Sports, is the world's premier celebrity golf tournament. For the fifth year in a row, the Lance Armstrong Foundation and its LIVESTRONG Global Cancer Campaign is the Championship's official charity.
Tony Romo
2009 – 4483 yards, 26 TD, 9 INT 236 points
2010* – 4089 yards, 27 TD, 12 INT 251 points

Romo bounced back from a substandard 2008 for an excellent 2009 fantasy season. He needed a big name target to throw the ball to, and after week 5, he found him in Miles Austin. From week 6-16 Romo never scored under 10 points, and had 3 20+ point performances. With both Austin and TE Jason Whitten to throw to, I expect another banner year out of Romo.

MIAMI GARDENS, FL - JANUARY 31: Matt Schaub of the Houston Texans holds up the MVP trophy after the 2010 AFC-NFC Pro Bowl at Sun Life Stadium on January 31, 2010 in Miami Gardens, Florida. (Photo by Scott Halleran/Getty Images)
Matt Schaub
2009 – 4770, yards 29 TD, 15 INT 243.1 points
2010* – 4140, yards 26 TD, 17 INT 247 points

Guy has an easy job, throw it to Andre Johnson. Then do it again, then again, and maybe a little more. With the leagues top WR on his side, last years top passer in terms of yards should have another 4k+ season. One thing to watch with Schaub is the Texans run game, which they are looking to reestablish with the drafting of Ben Tate in the second round. TE Owen Daniels is returning from an ACL, so they may need some young blood to step up.

ESPY Awards held at The Nokia Theatre L.A.Live in Los Angeles, California on July 14th, 2010. Brett Favre                                       Fame Pictures, Inc
Brett Favre
2009 – 4202 yards, 33 TD, 7 INT 264 points
2010* – 3856 yards, 26 TD, 13 INT 228 points

The old gunslinger will be back, he just won’t tell anyone until training camp is over. There are concerns about durability, every team that plays him will have one goal, to put him on the turf. That is nothing new, as long as he is the lineup he is a viable #1 fantasy QB.

NEW YORK - MAY 11: NFL Player Eli Manning poses for photos at the 7th Annual Project Sunshine Benefit at The Waldorf Astoria on May 11, 2010 in New York City. (Photo by Jemal Countess/Getty Images)
Eli Manning
2009 – 4021 yards, 27 TD, 14 INT 204 points
2010* – 3765 yards ,25 TD, 15 INT 223 points

On the one hand he is as exciting as watching paint dry, but on the other a solid 15 points a game is nothing to sneeze at. His 2008 fantasy season was beyond terrible, he obviously missed having Plaxico in the lineup, and they had no other receivers ready to step into the top dog role. The Giants drafted Hakeem Nicks in the first round in 2009, combined with a rising Steve Smith and solid TE play out of Kevin Boss, Manning had his best fantasy year. He has them all back and I look for him to put up another 4000 yard year.

Fourth Round

PHILADELPHIA - SEPTEMBER 27:  Kevin Kolb #4 of the Philadelphia Eagles looks to pass against the Kansas City Chiefs on September 27, 2009 at Lincoln Financial Field in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania.  (Photo by Chris McGrath/Getty Images)
Kevin Kolb
2009 – 741 yards, 4 TD, 3 INT 36 points
2010* – 3793 yards, 24 TD, 17 INT 232 points

You may ask what this unproven backup is doing up here in the top 12. Andy Reid loves to throw the ball, DeShaun Jackson loves to catch the ball, any QB in this system is going to put up some respectable fantasy numbers. The key will be the offensive line, they have a pro bowler on the blind side in Jason Peters, but to work in a new right guard and center. Overall I think Kolb will be solid, but not spectacular,and average about 15 points a game.

DETROIT - JANUARY 3: Jay Cutler #6 of the Chicago Bears looks for a receiver during the game against the Detroit Lions on January 3, 2010 at Ford Field in Detroit, Michigan. (Photo by Gregory Shamus/Getty Images)
Jay Cutler
2009 – 3666 yards, 27 TD, 26 INT 208 points
2010* – 3759 yards, 26 TD, 18 INT 249 points

The new riverboat gambler, teamed up with throw it anywhere and everywhere Mike Martz. I’m not all that impressed with the guys he will be throwing it to, Hester, Knoxx, and Aromashodu, but by god you can be assured the ball will be in the air. One of two things will happen, Cutler’s best season as a pro, or an epic disaster that will be written about for generations to come. He is the ultimate risk/reward QB in the draft, if he manages to stumble into the 5th or 6th rounds you almost have to take him. For that matter he can’t throw 26 picks again… right?

ASHBURN, VA - APRIL 15: Washington Redskins Donovan McNabb works out at the Washington Redskins training facility on April 15, 2010 in Ashburn, Virginia (Photo by Chris McGrath/Getty Images)
Donovan McNabb
2009 – 3553 yards, 22 TD, 10 INT 207 points
2010* – 3309 yards, 20 TD, 10 INT 199 points

I would seriously consider taking McNabb, sure he has little help receiver, but this season is about revenge. Dude’s going to be playing with a massive chip on his shoulder. I don’t care enough to know all the gory details of his departure from Philly, but I see him putting up 4TDs at least twice next year.

Round 5

ATLANTA - DECEMBER 27: Quarterback Matt Ryan #2 of the Atlanta Falcons against the Buffalo Bills at Georgia Dome on December 27, 2009 in Atlanta, Georgia. (Photo by Kevin C. Cox/Getty Images)
Matt Ryan
2009 – 2916 yards, 22 TD, 14 INT 169 points
2010* – 3444 yards, 22 TD, 15 INT 201 points

Ryan’s second year was a disappointment compared to his come from nowhere rookie performance. Most of that can be attributed to injuries to both himself (he missed two games) and to Michael Turner going down with a bum ankle. If the two can stay healthy I expect Ryan to surpass his rookie numbers and have a respectable fantasy season.

Jan. 16, 2010 - INDIANAPOLIS, INDIANA, UNITED STATES - epa01991587 Baltimore Ravens quarterback Joe Flacco talks on the phone near the end of the fourth quarter of their American Football Conference divisional playoff game against the Indianapolis Colts at Lucas Oil Stadium in Indianapolis, Indiana, USA 16 January 2010. The Colts defeated the Ravens 20-3 to advance to the AFC Championship game.
Joe Flacco
2009 – 3613 yards, 21 TD, 12 INT 175 points
2010* – 3526 yards, 23 TD, 11 INT 221 points

Guy’s tall, and makes Eli Manning look like Dave Chappelle. However unexciting he may be, hand the ball to Ray Rice, play fake to the tight end, will result in reliable 12-15 point games this year.

Round 6 + the rest

Even when the top 12 quarterbacks are off the board, you are still left with fine choices. Stay tuned, I’ll go over the next best 12 and where you can find some late round steals in a future post. Thanks for visiting Lost in the Woods, your exclusive source for all of the Morgantown Football League news and updates.

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