There are plenty of quarterbacks in the sea, but there is only one guy ready to lead you to fantasy glory in 2010. Quarterback has the most flux from week to week, a 300 yard 2 TD performance one week can easily turn into 100 yards and 3 picks the next. Unlike running back, where the demand far outstrips the supply, it is reasonable to get two solid starting quarterbacks in the draft. So do you go for the big gun or value? In a standard 12 team league, most teams will take two each, leaving around 8 starters on the waiver wire. Here is my breakdown of the top QBs and where I suspect they will be drafted in the MFL this season.
Updated from 7/22/2010
Note: The Morgantown Football League scoring is one point per 50 yards, and 6 points for a touchdown pass. So if your league gives 4 for a passing TD, you should bump all of these guys down a round or two. A touchdown is always 6 points, and that’s the way we like it.
* 2010 projections from FFtoday.com using the MFL’s scoring system
Brees is the most exciting quarterback in the league today. I got to come along on the ride last year, as I had both Pierre Thomas and Robert Meachum in my lineup. Brees can score from anywhere at any time and to any player. The Saints have surrounded him with athletes and he is not afraid to use them. He is Bret Favre of lore minus the interceptions. Anyone with a low first round pick has to seriously consider forsaking a first round RB for the excitement having Brees on the roster will provide.
While Brees had the very slight edge in passing numbers, Rodgers was the MFL’s top scoring QB last season, because when the ball is on the one yard line, he’s putting his head down and getting in for a quick 6. He also showed off some excellent control with only 7 picks, and rarely put the ball on the carpet losing just 4 fumbles. With Greg Jennings, Double D, and James Jones all returning, I expect another great year out of Rodgers. The reason I have him slightly behind Brees is a tough schedule, at least according to that guy.
Captain consistent, grabbing up Manning means you can safely take a backup in round 15, and plan for them to only play during his bye. He gets rid of the ball so quickly he is virtually injury proof, and on top of that last season he never lost a fumble. The one problem with taking Manning is that the Colts could have the AFC South locked up before the fantasy playoffs.
Started slow in his comeback from losing the 2008 season to injury, but put things together nicely for his fantasy owners. You can be assured that Brady will have the ball in the air 35-40 times per game, and it looks like Wes Welker will be healthy to start the year. Brady makes a living on those short passes over the middle, Edleman proved to be a Welker clone filling in at the end of the last season, it will may be key that he does so again.
Romo bounced back from a substandard 2008 for an excellent 2009 fantasy season. He needed a big name target to throw the ball to, and after week 5, he found him in Miles Austin. From week 6-16 Romo never scored under 10 points, and had 3 20+ point performances. With both Austin and TE Jason Whitten to throw to, I expect another banner year out of Romo.
Guy has an easy job, throw it to Andre Johnson. Then do it again, then again, and maybe a little more. With the leagues top WR on his side, last years top passer in terms of yards should have another 4k+ season. One thing to watch with Schaub is the Texans run game, which they are looking to reestablish with the drafting of Ben Tate in the second round. TE Owen Daniels is returning from an ACL, so they may need some young blood to step up.
The Saga continues, I see Favre’s worst flaw is that he can’t just say no. Who the hell knows what will happen with him, all I do know is that if he plays he is a viable starter. This is why I’m pleased both my drafts are at the start of next month. If your draft is coming this weekend, I’d throw Favre off the board until things are more clear.
On the one hand he is as exciting as watching paint dry, but on the other a solid 15 points a game is nothing to sneeze at. His 2008 fantasy season was beyond terrible, he obviously missed having Plaxico in the lineup, and they had no other receivers ready to step into the top dog role. The Giants drafted Hakeem Nicks in the first round in 2009, combined with a rising Steve Smith and solid TE play out of Kevin Boss, Manning had his best fantasy year. He has them all back and I look for him to put up another 4000 yard year.
The new riverboat gambler, teamed up with throw it anywhere and everywhere Mike Martz. I’m not all that impressed with the guys he will be throwing it to, Hester, Knoxx, and Aromashodu, but by god you can be assured the ball will be in the air. One of two things will happen, Cutler’s best season as a pro, or an epic disaster that will be written about for generations to come. He is the ultimate risk/reward QB in the draft, if he manages to stumble into the 5th or 6th rounds you almost have to take him. For that matter he can’t throw 26 picks again… right?
My hero. Almost single handedly lead my team to the title last season. After starting a woeful 2-4, Rivers stepped it up and led the Three Eyed Fish to wins in 9 of the last 10 games, and took home the MFL Finals MVP. Things are looking rocky for the start of this year, starting with the running game which will become more prominent with the drafting of Ryan Matthews. The Chargers have added some Wildcat formations for Matthews which means there will be plays when Rivers is watching from the sideline. The elephant in the room is Vincent Jackson, who has decided to go all diva and is still holding out causing Rivers stock to go down.
You may ask what this unproven backup is doing up here in the top 12. Andy Reid loves to throw the ball, DeShaun Jackson loves to catch the ball, any QB in this system is going to put up some respectable fantasy numbers. The key will be the offensive line, they have a pro bowler on the blind side in Jason Peters, but to work in a new right guard and center. Overall I think Kolb will be solid, but not spectacular,and average about 15 points a game.
I would seriously consider taking McNabb, sure he has little help receiver, but this season is about revenge. Dude’s going to be playing with a massive chip on his shoulder. I don’t care enough to know all the gory details of his departure from Philly, but I see him putting up 4TDs at least twice next year.
Ryan’s second year was a disappointment compared to his come from nowhere rookie performance. Most of that can be attributed to injuries to both himself (he missed two games) and to Michael Turner going down with a bum ankle. If the two can stay healthy I expect Ryan to surpass his rookie numbers and have a respectable fantasy season.
Guy’s tall, and makes Eli Manning look like Dave Chappelle. However unexciting he may be, hand the ball to Ray Rice, play fake to the tight end, will result in reliable 12-15 point games this year.
Round 6 +
Carson Palmer – I’m not all that enthralled with the addition of TO, but looking at the Bengals offense overall there could be a good year in store for Palmer.
Ben Roethlisberger – One the one hand out for 4 games, on the other he could be a great late round steal for a late season push.
David Garrard – The Jags gave him no receiver help in the off season, I see him as a bye week fill in.
I’ll have one more update for the September Drafts, thanks for visiting Lost in the Woods, your exclusive source for all of the Morgantown Football League news and updates.